Russian Forces Hint Recapture Kursk Amid US-Ukraine Aid Shift, Ceasefire Talks
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Russian
forces have regained significant territory in the Kursk region of Russia,
previously held by Ukraine for seven months, raising questions about the impact
of a temporary US intelligence cutoff. This resurgence occurred as Russia
"studies" a US-proposed ceasefire, accepted by Ukraine after
extensive negotiations in Riyadh.
The
Russian offensive intensified on March 6, coinciding with a temporary halt in
US military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine. During this period, Russian
forces reportedly launched 32 attacks in Kursk, deploying advanced drone
operators and electronic warfare to neutralize Ukrainian drone defenses.
A key
strategic move occurred on March 7, when Russia launched attacks in the Sumy
region, aiming to encircle Ukrainian forces in Kursk and sever their supply
lines. By Saturday, Russian troops had captured settlements north of Sudzha,
the main Ukrainian stronghold in Kursk, and initiated attacks on the city
itself, including an infiltration of the industrial zone via gas pipelines.
Despite
initial reports of a potential Ukrainian withdrawal, Commander-in-Chief
Oleksandr Syrskii denied any immediate threat of encirclement, sending
reinforcements. However, by Tuesday, Russia claimed to have recaptured over 100
square kilometers (40 square miles) in Kursk, including numerous settlements. Kremlin
spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the "liberation" of Sudzha, and
President Vladimir Putin visited Kursk, signaling the operation's advanced
stage.
The
Russian gains contrast with Ukraine's successful counter-invasion last August,
where a smaller Ukrainian force pinned down a larger Russian contingent,
highlighting the strategic importance of Kursk. Military analysts suggest Putin
aims to fully recapture the region by May 9, the anniversary of the Soviet
victory in Berlin.
A
Ukrainian government source indicated the US intelligence cutoff significantly
hampered Ukraine's ability to detect Russian movements and target key assets. In
response, European nations have stepped up efforts to provide alternative
intelligence and satellite communication systems, including offers from French,
Spanish, UK, and Luxembourg satellite operators, and continued imagery from
Maxar Technologies.
Europe is
also increasing weapon deliveries to Ukraine, with Defence Minister Rustem
Umerov coordinating efforts with Nordic and Baltic countries, and securing
agreements with German and British defense firms to boost production of air
defense systems and drones. Ukraine is also expanding its domestic defense
industry, aiming to produce 4.5 million FPV drones in 2025 and supplying 40
percent of its own weapons.
Despite
the intelligence cutoff, Ukraine continued deep strikes into Russia, including
drone attacks on Moscow, the Diaghilev air force base, and oil refineries in
Ryazan and Samara. Ukrainian forces also targeted the NLMK metallurgical plant
in Novolipetsk, a key supplier of materials for Russian military equipment.
The US
has since resumed intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine following
their acceptance of the ceasefire plan, raising questions about the future
trajectory of the conflict.
Russia,
meanwhile, continues to "study" the proposed ceasefire terms.
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